Almost three years into the COVID pandemic, it clearly isn’t over.
New offshoots of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 continue to proliferate worldwide. The virus is mutating extensively and convergently (meaning the same mutations are popping up along different family trees) and, as a result, we now have what is increasingly being called a “variant soup”.
The current range of immunity-evading descendants of the Omicron variant is unprecedented in its diversity, which makes it harder to predict coming waves.
Although some may feel infection has now become inevitable, we must not forget that vaccination substantially lowers the risk of infection (including Omicron), hospitalisation and death, and staying free of infection means not having to face the risk of long COVID.
Vaccine protection is even better after receiving at least one booster, compared with just having the primary series. This is why Aotearoa New Zealand needs to embark on another round of boosters to better protect the population.
At present, just over 90% of the population aged 12 years or older have completed the primary course. More than 70% aged 18 or older have received the first booster, but only just over 40% of those over 50 have received the second booster. We look like an increasingly vulnerable population.
Read more:
Omicron-specific vaccines may give slightly better COVID protection – but getting boosted promptly is the best bet
What we also need now, but do not yet have, is a sterilising vaccine of the sort we have for measles. This kind of vaccine eliminates the pathogen before it can replicate. The vaccinated person does not get ill, nor can they pass it on to others. Research is underway, including in New Zealand, but we are not there yet.
The variant soup and waning immunity
The growing prevalence of the variant soup in the US is clear from the latest data.
We don’t yet have a clear idea of the differences in transmissibility and severity among the new variants, although there are hints from France that the dominant new variant, BQ.1.1, and its sub-variants do not cause as much severe disease as we have seen earlier.
