Ignore the polls: One Nation is the unofficial opposition

The polling headlines have been shouty: One Nation is surging! It’s a One Nation bubble! One Nation has peaked!

But beyond the noise, there’s a trend: more Australians are voting for One Nation.

The controversial minor party has become our unofficial opposition.

In episode six of The Making of One Nation, political scientist Jill Sheppard laughs that she hasn’t been asked about the real opposition leader in three months.

We’re not talking about (Liberal leader) Angus Taylor. We’re not even really talking about (Nationals Leader) Matt Canavan, we’re still talking about Pauline Hanson. She’s charismatic. She’s attention-grabbing.

And so if part of the job of opposition is to lead the alternate agenda, to talk about things that the government isn’t talking about, then we could say One Nation is already the opposition.

One Nation is hardly a new phenomenon; this year marks 30 years since Hanson was first elected to parliament.

Decades on, Hanson’s still talking about many of the same issues: migration, globalisation and trade.

I think what’s different about One Nation this time is that everything is dovetailing in their favour. The Coalition is in disarray. Housing affordability is worse than it has been in a long time. Inflation keeps going up, so interest rates are going up at the same time.

And if you’re looking for a scapegoat, you’ve got this party that’s been waiting in the wings with 30 years of experience by now and this much more professionalised edge ready to take that vote.

It’s a critical juncture for the party: can it move from the fringe to the mainstream in earnest? And to do so, will it have to drop some of its more provocative and offensive rhetoric?

Certainly the maths suggest there’s no way that One Nation becomes the official opposition in Australian politics. But right now all we’re doing is talking about One Nation.

Listen to episode six of The Making of One Nation podcast, available at Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts.

This episode was written by Ashlynne McGhee and produced and edited by Isabella Podwinski. Sound design by Michelle Macklem.