KPMG: Slower than expected interest rate cuts to support bank margins in 2025

KPMG's latest report, the Hong Kong Banking Outlook 2025, predicts substantial opportunities for banks that are willing to adapt and innovate, with technologies like Generative AI and virtual assets set to transform operating models. The report provides insights and predictions from KPMG experts regarding the outlook for Hong Kong and highlights key themes for banks to focus on this year, including embracing emerging technologies, staying abreast of ESG trends and keeping pace with regulatory developments.

Paul McSheaffrey, Senior Banking Partner, Hong Kong, KPMG China, says: "2024 marked an improvement for Hong Kong's banking sector, with signs of recovery emerging after a prolonged period of challenges. Driven by policy shifts in the Chinese Mainland, these developments have laid the groundwork for cautious optimism entering 2025. Some green shoots of recovery have been seen, including an uptick in funds raised on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and positive policy measures in the Chinese Mainland aimed at stimulating consumer demand. Thus, we are more optimistic about the prospects of the Hong Kong banking sector during the year."

For retail and commercial banks, KPMG believes that the pace of interest rate reductions will be slower than many forecasts suggest, which will help banks preserve their margins. For investment banks, the positive policy measures in China are expected to enhance consumer sentiment, thereby fostering capital raising and M&A activity in China, ultimately benefiting Hong Kong.

Jianing Song, Head of Banking and Capital Markets, Hong Kong, KPMG China, says: "As we enter 2025, the environment faced by banks is becoming increasingly complex. However, we believe that this year will bring substantial opportunities for banks willing to adapt and innovate. Emerging technologies, such as Generative AI and virtual assets, have the potential to transform operating models. Through cost optimization, data governance, and digital transformation, banks can navigate their current challenges and build a foundation for long-term growth."

Resilience remains a key regulatory focus

Resilience against cyber fraud and financial crime will remain a top priority in 2025 as losses experienced by banks and customers continue to make headlines. Meeting regulatory expectations will be crucial, with a strong focus on implementing existing regulations and new resilience requirements. AI adoption will be become a sector-wide topic in financial crime over the next two years, as authorised institutions and regulators gear up to tackle risks and meet regulatory expectations.

KPMG also expects Hong Kong regulators to launch initiatives to further encourage the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) in the banking industry. This is driven by the need to build resilience against the operational risks associated with traditional settlement and payment infrastructure. It also addresses the need for banks to adapt their business models in the face of competition from new Fintech market entrants and 'digital natives'.

Strategic cost optimisation

Geopolitical uncertainty, rising operational expenses and increasing regulatory requirements mean that manging costs will remain a focus in the banking sector. Instead of implementing broad cost-cutting measures, KPMG expects banks to adopt a more strategic approach centered on cost optimization. This involves identifying the root causes of inefficiency and implementing targeted corrective interventions. Automation can be an effective tool in this process, addressing latent inefficiency in core processes across front, middle, and back office. This can lead to increased productivity, reduced cost to serve, an enhanced customer experience and ultimately, a stronger top line.

Digital transformation trends

The pace of digital transformation in Hong Kong's banking sector is expected to accelerate in 2025. More than one-third of financial institutions are already integrating Generative AI, supported by government initiatives such as the HKMA's Generative AI Sandbox. Virtual assets have also been ranking high on the digital transformation agenda for banks, with initiatives like HKEX's Virtual Asset Index Series and HKMA's Project Ensemble Sandbox accelerating Hong Kong's tokenisation market development. KPMG expects policy support to continue in this area throughout 2025.

In 2025, Hong Kong banks should prioritise digitising their operations by leveraging resources such as Fintech Connect; expanding their digital-savvy workforce through talent acquisition and upskilling; and future-proofing their digital asset and Generative AI readiness by establishing a robust data governance framework.

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