Independents took cities by storm last election. This time, they’ve got regional Australia in their sights

In 2022, the national vote for independents or minor parties was the highest in almost a century. A third of Australians voted for someone who wasn’t running for Labor or the Coalition.

This has been interpreted as a phenomenon largely playing out in inner-city electorates.

But this election, it will pay to keep an eye on independents running in regional and rural Australia. Growing grassroots support suggests they, along with minor parties, will pose a major challenge to the two-party dominance that’s slowly diminishing.

Building independent momentum

Independents and minor parties have long been a feature of Australian politics, despite Australia’s political setup favouring a two-party system.

But as successive federal elections have shown, traditional two-party voting is changing.

In 2019, one in four voters preferred minor or independent candidates. In 2022, it was one in three.

Pollsters predict on two-candidate preferred, there will be a swing towards independents in regional and rural seats, and swings against them in the inner cities.

Labor movements have been drifting away from their manufacturing heartland, towards cities and metropolitan issues. The Coalition, meanwhile, has held steady in the cities and even grown in regional areas, but declined in rural seats.

In 2013, the Community Independents Project was cofounded by Cathy McGowan and Alana Johnson, targeting inner-city seats.

Then, six weeks before the 2019 federal election, Climate 200 emerged as a second network of independent, community-minded candidates.

By 2022, the results were reflected in both the upper and lower house, with ten independents elected to the House of Representatives – the largest crossbench since 1934 – and ten of the 40 incoming senators representing minor parties or independents.

Now, they have their sights set on regional or provincial and rural seats. They are repeating the 2022 strategy of mostly women candidates issuing a challenge to Liberals in formerly “safe” seats.

‘Kitchen table’ campaigners

Claiming the two major parties have abandoned regional and rural Australia, independents are pitching themselves as the solution.

However, they take care to distinguish their goals from the Teal movement’s focus on city seats.

Candidates include former teachers, nurses, lawyers, regional health leaders, financial education specialists, natural resources managers, community support centre chief executives, solar-energy innovators, and a radio show host.

Health, wellbeing, regional access to medical facilities and the housing crisis are key issues. This is because construction lags behind population growth in areas such as Queensland’s Sunshine Coast and the outer northwestern suburbs of Sydney and outer west of Melbourne.

The strategy is simple: conversations around the kitchen table, community centre meetings, and “listening campaigns” focusing on hyper-local issues.

It’s a movement that pays homage to a more direct model of democracy.

Big money, big aims

A Community Independent candidate is supported by a network of organisations including the Regional Voices Fund, Climate 200, Voices AU, Community Independent Projects plus other media, legal and branding firms.

While the candidates may differ in background and even in policy priorities, the idea is they represent the community, not the interests of a party. A focus on climate change is also key.

The movement is aiming to raise $2 million for rural and regional candidates, through the Regional Voices Fund. The target is getting five regional and rural crossbenchers into the next parliament.

So far, the regional fund is supporting 12 candidates:

• one each in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia

• four in New South Wales

• and five in country Victoria.

Priority will be given to defending key independent seats, including Indi in southeast Victoria, where Helen Haines holds a 1.4% margin against the Liberal Party’s Ross Lyman.

Of the 35 independent candidates supported by the Community Independent movement, four came close in 2022 and are recontesting.

Caz Heise will try again for the New South Wales seat of Cowper, currently held by the Nationals on a margin of just 2.4%.

Another Nationals-held NSW seat, Calare, will be challenged again by Kate Hook, who attracted 40% of the vote in 2022.

In Victoria, Alex Dyson cut the Liberal margin from 10.2% to 3.5% in Wannon in the previous election, and will be hoping to win this time.

And in Queensland, Suzie Holt will try again for the seat of Groom. Previously a very safe Liberal seat, there was a 13.65% swing against the party in 2022.

A primed electorate

The ground is fertile for success. Take Queensland as an example.

It’s the state with the most regional seats outside the capital. In 2019, Queensland saw a substantial growth in a minor party and independent vote, propelled largely by a regional, populist and conservative backlash against progressive metropolitan policy agendas.

Almost 90% of Queensland voters endorsed a major party in 1996, but just 70% did so in 2019.

Queensland’s politics is shaped by populism, with distrust of outsiders, elites and people from southern states. Such slogans such as “don’t take my coal job and I won’t take your soy latte” are readily deployed, priming a disenfranchised electorate to look for alternatives outside the usual dichotomy.

In WA, changes to the Legislative Council on a state level remove the distinction between city and country members of the upper house. It’s ignited a similar city vs country divide.

So while the regions have much lower populations than cities, due to preferential and proportional voting systems, independents and minor parties can have an outsized influence on politics without being in government.

Though if minority government predictions prove correct, successful candidates may find themselves in government anyway.