After weeks of confusion and chaos, Tasmania heads back to the polls on July 19

The Tasmanian government has called a state election for July 19, the fourth in a little over seven years.

Following days of high drama, Governor Barbara Baker finally granted Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s election request, saying there was no other course of action to break the deadlock gripping Tasmanian politics:

I make this grant because I am satisfied there is no real possibility that an alternative government can be formed.

The ballot will be the second state election in just 16 months.

So how did we get here? And what happens next?

Dark political mofo

The Dark Mofo festival kicked off last week, bringing to Hobart its usual mix of weird, dark, and violent modern art. But in the halls of Tasmanian parliament, a similarly macabre and vicious spectacle was playing out.

I have written a more detailed analysis of events previously, but here’s the quick version.

On June 3, the Labor opposition moved a motion of no confidence in Rockliff. After two days of acrimonious parliamentary debate, the motion passed on the casting vote of the speaker.

An election looked inevitable because Rockliff refused to step aside and Opposition Leader Dean Winter ruled out doing a deal with the Greens to govern in minority.

Parliament returned briefly to pass emergency supply bills, which were needed after the no confidence motion derailed the recent state budget.

Shortly afterwards, Rockliff asked the governor to dissolve parliament and call an election. This request has now been granted after a few days of deliberation.

How did it come to this?

It’s been a rocky road for the Liberal government since the last state election in March 2024. Holding only 14 of the House of Assembly’s 35 seats, it has governed in minority thanks to confidence and supply deals with five crossbenchers.

This tenuous arrangement was under constant pressure. Labor and the crossbench installed Michelle O'Byrne as speaker, and in the second half of 2024 passed three pieces of legislation against the government’s will.

In August 2024, the implosion of the Jacqui Lambie Network and the forced resignation of Michael Ferguson as deputy premier and treasurer added further complications.

Against this backdrop, the government has faced a rapidly deteriorating fiscal situation. This is partly the legacy of the COVID pandemic, compounded by recent global uncertainty. However, as economist Saul Eslake notes, the roots of the problem can be found in the policy choices made by previous state Liberal governments.

Policy setbacks

Even considering the challenging context, the government has done itself few favours. The ongoing project to replace the ageing Spirit of Tasmania ferries has been mired in cost blowouts and poor planning.

An abrupt about-face on nation-leading gambling reforms, tentative explorations of privatising state assets – since abandoned – and radical changes to the planning system also caused concern.

And of course, there is the saga over the highly contentious $945 million stadium to support a Tassie team in the AFL.

Most importantly, though, there has been little progress on the deep structural reforms needed to address the state’s poor health and education outcomes, housing crisis, cost-of-living challenges, and worsening budget situation.

On the positive side, the government points to achievements recruiting much-needed frontline healthcare workers, increasing the supply of social and affordable housing, and a historically low unemployment rate.

What happens now?

The campaign will be a political version of a classic children’s party game: pin the blame on the party.

Liberal and Labor will both claim the early election is the fault of the other, while the debate over the stadium will likely continue to distract from Tasmania’s other, far more important challenges.

The election result is hard to predict. In the past, Tasmanians have punished minority governments at elections, and in the latest available polling, support for the Liberal Party was at a 16-year low of 29%.

But the circumstances of this election mean we can’t rely too much on previous trends. The drop in Liberal support is partly driven by northern Tasmanians’ dislike of the Hobart stadium. However, that won’t necessarily help Labor, because they also remain committed to the project.

Labor will be energised by the federal party’s recent victory. But the most recent polling shows the state branch is barely more popular than the Liberals. Winter lags Rockliff as preferred premier 44%-32%, with a high “never heard of” rating of 24%.

The Greens could benefit from being the only notable party opposed to the stadium, but will be fighting relentless Labor and Liberal warnings about the perils of forming another minority government.

None of this points to the July 19 election producing a stable majority government. In fact, there is a strong likelihood the Tasmanian electorate – grumpy about being forced to the polls in mid-winter – will punish both major parties.

This could result in an even larger and more diverse crossbench, requiring deft and collaborative negotiations to stitch together the numbers to form government.

While the theatre of the campaign plays out, the ambitious structural reforms that Tasmania desperately needs seem further away than ever.

The drama is worthy of Dark Mofo, but Tasmanians are already tired of the performance.