How might the House of Representatives shape up after the 2025 federal election?
- Written by The Conversation
The 2025 federal election promises to be one of the most enthralling contests in Australia in the 21st century. The numbers in parliament are finely poised and there are big questions about how Independents and minor parties will perform.
All of this will be occurring within a context of many electorates having changed boundaries for the 2025 poll.
What happened in 2022?
The 2022 election was a government-changing event. The Liberal and National Party coalition lost power after nine years and Anthony Albanese led Labor to government.
It was a disastrous result for the Liberal Party in particular, as it lost 16 electorates across the country, in addition to the LNP losing two seats in Queensland, and ended up with 58 seats in the House of Representatives in which there were 151 seats. Labor, however, did not enjoy a landslide victory. It managed to win government after winning 77 of the 151 seats.
The Greens performed strongly and increased their representation in the lower house to four, while the Centre Alliance and Katter’s Australia Party won one seat each.
A standout result was that seven new Independents won seats across Australia. Of significant note were the “Teal” Independents who defeated high profile Liberal Party MPs including then-Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in the seat of Kooyong and Tim Wilson in the seat of Goldstein.
What is the state of the parties in 2025?
A lot has happened since the 2022 election.
At least two MPs who were elected as members of the Coalition will be contesting as Independents at this election. This includes Russell Broadbent in the Victorian seat of Monash and Ian Goodenough in the WA electorate of Moore. Labor also won an additional seat when it defeated the Liberal Party in a by-election in the Victorian seat of Aston in 2023.
There have also been significant changes to electoral boundaries following the Australian Electoral Commission’s routine redistribution.
The seat of Higgins in Melbourne (which had been won by Labor) has been abolished, a new seat of Bullwinkel will be established in Western Australia, and New South Wales will be losing a seat due to population shifts.
The net effect of all these changes means there will be 150 districts being contested at the 2025 election.
To win government, a party (or a coalition of parties and/or MPs) must win at least 76 seats as this is a clear majority (50% + 1).
What and where are the marginal seats?
The Australian Electoral Commission classifies a seat as being marginal if it was won by a two party margin of 6% or less. A safe seat is one with a margin of 10% or more.
Marginal seats often get a lot of attention during election campaigns, as a small shift in the voting choices of that community can change who wins the seat.
Thanks to excellent analysis by Antony Green, who has also taken into consideration the redistributions, we can identify where these marginal seats are.
Labor has at least 17 seats with a margin of less than 6%, while the Coalition has at least 21 seats with a margin of less than 6%.
Five of the seats held by Independents are under a margin of 6%, while the Greens also hold two seats with a margin under 4%.
The most marginal seat that Labor currently holds is Gilmore in New South Wales by just 0.2%, while for the Coalition, the Victorian seat of Deakin is held by a margin of just 0.02%.
As these results demonstrate, the 2025 election promises to be a very tight contest with a large number of seats on the precipice of changing hands.
A defining moment in Australian politics
Compared to the 2019 election, the primary vote of the major parties in the House of Representatives went backwards in 2022. Opinion polling also shows that while Labor has lost ground, there is no clear favourite to win.
The challenge for Labor is that its majority in the House of Representatives is so small that losing one or two seats will threaten its ability to govern by itself.
For the Coalition, the challenge is that it is coming from a very weak position and will need to win over 20 seats to have a majority in the House of Representatives.
A situation where neither major party reaches 76 seats is a very real possibility in 2025.
If this was to occur, the parties will have to negotiate with the other MPs who are elected to the chamber to secure support and form a minority government. The last time there was a minority government in Australia was in 2010–13 when Prime Minister Julia Gillard was able to get the support of four cross bench MPs to remain in power.
The 2025 election is also a test for the Independents and Greens, who did so well in 2022.
If they are returned, or increase in number, the 2022 result would be seen as a turning point in Australian politics.
But if Independents and Greens fail to achieve the highs of the previous election, their results in 2022 would be seen as a flash in the pan.
