One Nation’s rise may seem sudden, but it follows long-term voter trends

Written by The Conversation

The rise of One Nation may seem sudden. In the 2025 Australian federal election, Pauline Hanson’s party received only 6.4% of the national vote. A year later, One Nation has surpassed the Liberal Party in the polls, received more votes than the Liberals in the South Australian election, and won their first seat in the House of Representatives in the Farrer by-election.

Similarly, the movement of independent candidates seemed to emerge rapidly. At the 2019 federal election, independent candidates won just three seats. By 2022, this had multiplied to 10 independents winning seats in the House of Representatives, six of which were previously safe Liberal seats.

While these major shifts in voter behaviour seem to have appeared suddenly, the conditions underlying the rise of minor parties and independents have been building gradually over decades.

How did we end up here? Our new podcast (Apple | Spotify) traces the unlikely story of Australia’s most controversial minor party. For thirty years, it’s honed its tactics and now its upending politics as we know it. The Australian Election Study, a major survey of Australian voters that has been fielded after every federal election since 1987, tracks long-term shifts in Australian political attitudes and behaviour. These surveys show the gradual transformation of Australian voters and their preferences, which has created opportunities for smaller parties and independents. The first major shift is what is known as “partisan dealignment” – growing voter detachment from political parties. This means there are fewer voters “rusted on” to the major parties than there used to be. Back in 1987, 84% of Australians reported feeling close to one of the two major political parties. By 2025, this had declined to just 55%. For the first time on record, the proportion of non-partisans in the electorate, surpassed the number of Liberal partisans (Figure 1). Other indicators similarly reflect this growing disaffection with the major parties. The popularity of both Labor and the Liberals has declined, reaching a record low for Labor in 2013, following the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years. The Liberals hit a record low in 2025, following their historic election defeat. The second shift, related to this detachment from political parties, is growing voter volatility. In the 1960s, over 70% of voters would vote for the same party in every election. This has gradually declined over time, with just 34% of voters reporting that they always voted the same way in 2025 (Figure 2). This growing electoral volatility is reflected in a range of indicators. These include more voters considering changing their vote during election campaigns and more voters deciding their own vote preference order rather than following a how-to-vote card (Figure 3). Taken together, these results show Australian voters have become detached from major political parties. They are also increasingly likely to change their vote from election to election. This weakens the influence of long-term factors driving the vote, such as social position and party attachments. It increases the importance of short-term factors such as election issues, the campaign, and the party leaders. Partisan dealignment on its own is not enough for a minor party or independent to win a seat. But it does create an opportunity for alternative actors to mount competitive campaigns that tap into voters’ frustrations with the major parties. In many recent cases, these campaigns have been successful. Australia’s unique electoral system creates both challenges and opportunities for non-major party actors. On the one hand, single-seat electorates in the House of Representatives have typically made it hard for minor parties or independents to compete with the dominance of the two major parties. On the other, preferential voting can encourage voting for minor parties and independents as voters can do so without the risk of a lost vote. Compulsory voting further mobilises non-partisans, who might be less likely to participate if voting were voluntary. The recent electoral success of independents and One Nation in Australian politics may appear to be a new phenomenon, but the changes within the electorate underlying this shift have gradually emerged over decades.

Australia

One Nation’s rise may seem sudden, but it follows long-term voter trends

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